Market Pulse:Germany

With the August vacation season now behind us, we take a look at what the short-term rental market in Germany looks like for the coming weeks.

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Key Takeaways:

The Berlin market has experienced shorter booking lead times since the start of the pandemic, but is now slowly increasing as travelers book fewer last-minute trips than they have in the past year.
In the Munich and Dusseldorf markets, over 50% of the booking pace lead time for the next three weeks is under one month. Both markets show that the booking pace is ahead of 2019 for the next month.
The Cologne market is booking up in the next 14 days with an additional bump in pickup for the second week of October. This is an improved pattern compared to a “normal” year and already exceeding 2019 in some periods.
For the Karlsruhe market, 2021 booking pace is ahead or in line with 2019, with a few select weeks in the immediate term pacing higher than 2019.

The chart above displays the average number of bookings that have been made per listing over the past 21 days, for both 2020 and 2021, in selected markets in Germany. Using 2019 pace data helps provide insight into how 2021 is performing so far compared to a “normal” year.

In Berlin, Cologne, Dusseldorf, Karlsruhe, and Munich, the charts below display all bookings that have been made over the past 21 days by their check-in week.

Additionally, the same values for 2019 are included to provide pacing context for each market.

Berlin

In Berlin, last-minute booking pace for the next three weeks is mostly in line with 2019, with more guests following similar pre-pandemic booking patterns.

This market in particular has experienced shorter booking lead times that have sustained since the start of the pandemic, but is increasing through the end of summer as travelers book fewer last-minute trips than they have in the past year. However, it still remains shorter in comparison to 2019 in the coming months and ahead starting in October.

The Berlin market appears to be keeping up with 2019 booking pace in the short term and performance by month is ahead for 2019.

As booking pace recovers, property managers that have not seen an increase in bookings for September need not worry as the market is pacing well in line with 2019 data.

Munich & Dusseldorf

In the Munich and Dusseldorf markets, over 50% of booking pace lead time for the next three weeks is under one month. Both markets show that booking pace is ahead of 2019 for the next month.

The Munich market in particular has historically experienced shorter booking lead times that have sustained since the start of the pandemic. At the same time in 2019, more people were booking their travels further out in September and October.

We advise that the immediate term is anticipated to perform ahead of pick-up trends in Munich and Dusseldorf, but travel demand for the market is not at full recovery compared to 2019 data. Property managers should keep an eye on their latest booking lead time data as the market heads into Fall and last-minute bookings drive occupancy.

Cologne

Performance in the Cologne market shows vast recovery in the short term compared to 2019. Similar to Dusseldorf and Munich, booking lead time of up to 3-4 weeks out climbs ahead of 2019, while 1-2 months out has some growth opportunity.

Overall, the Cologne market is booking up in the next two weeks with an additional bump in pickup for the second week of October. We can see that this is an improved pattern compared to a “normal” year and already exceeding 2019 in some periods.

We advise that the immediate term is anticipated to perform ahead of pick-up trends in Cologne, but travel demand for the market is not at full recovery compared to 2019 data. Property managers should keep an eye on their latest booking lead time data as the market heads into Fall and last-minute bookings drive occupancy.

Karlsruhe

In Karlsruhe, 2021 booking pace is ahead or in line with 2019, with a few select weeks in the immediate term pacing higher than 2019. The chart shows that this year’s booking lead times are slightly shorter for immediate weeks while travelers were booking closer to their arrival date in advance (up to 10 days out).

Karlsruhe’s mid-Fall performance by month is ahead compared to the same time period in 2019. As booking pace recovers, property managers that have not seen an increase in bookings for September this year need not worry as the market is pacing well in line with 2019 data.