As the weather turns colder and the holiday season approaches in the U.S., we took a look at how top winter short-term rental markets are pacing for early 2023. While historical data should play a role in your overall revenue management strategy, access to forward-looking data is critical to driving the best revenue outcomes. As we have seen in the last few years the short-term rental market is ever-changing, so it’s essential to stay on top of and react to current trends in your area.
At Beyond, we have extensive short-term rental market data that allows us to get a clear picture of how top vacation rental winter markets are pacing into the new year. Let’s take a look at performance in some popular winter destinations across the U.S. From there, we’ll dive into our recommendations for property managers to respond to current trends.
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Short-Term Rental Market #1: Breckenridge, CO
The Breckenridge market is pacing softer versus the same time in 2022 through the holidays 2022 but improves as 2023 begins. The market is currently behind 2022 in Q1 by 8-10%. March is an exception, as it is more in line with 2022 and already peaking at 32% occupancy for the spring break high season.
The Q1 booking window trends remain the same versus 2022 as the majority of bookings come in more than two months out of arrival. However, the rate of long booking windows have declined slightly – in Q1 2022, about 45% of bookings were confirmed more than two months out vs 60% in 2021.
Recommendation: We expect the booking window to continue to shift down for Q1 2023, so revisit your current last-minute discount strategy to ensure that it’s aligned with your occupancy goals. With travel demand pacing softer, we recommend staying competitive with your pricing strategy so that you get your fair share of occupancy.
Short-Term Rental Market #2: Park City, Utah
The Park City market is currently pacing softer for the upcoming holiday season, but greatly improves pace in the new year. As we approach Q1 2023, occupancy is pacing ahead for January into mid-February, with most occupancy opportunities starting after Valentine’s Day into March. From there, occupancy is pacing behind by about 8-10% through the end of March.
Booking windows in Park City have also shifted versus 2022. In 2021 data showed that 65- 75% of bookings came in more than two months out, while Q1 2022 actualized longer average lead times, with up to 80% of bookings confirming reservations two months prior to arrival.
Recommendation: With some occupancy opportunity in Q1, our recommendations would be to remain competitive with price positions in order to capture your fair share of occupancy, especially at a time when booking window averages are increasing in the market.
Short-Term Rental Market #3: Lake Tahoe, CA
The Lake Tahoe market is trending in line with the same time in 2022 for the most part. Most occupancy opportunities fall on weekdays and the second half of February. We can also see that hosts and managers are making an effort to remain conservative with the rates so far in Q1 2023.
Booking lead time trends in Lake Tahoe during the beginning of 2023 historically become shorter beginning mid-January into mid-February, with about 45% of total bookings coming in within a month of arrival. However Q1 trends in 2022 during the same time were about 60-65% of total bookings coming in within a month of arrival.
Recommendation: Revisit your pricing strategy and stay firm on the rate should you be pacing ahead of the market in Q1. With that, revisiting your booking window strategy is also vital as booking windows continue to shift versus Q1 2022.
What are you keeping in mind for 2023?